The Metrics That Actually Predict Revenue.
Every one of these is knowable weeks before the number that finally shows up on the board slide.
The problem
- Dashboards report the outcome, not the inputs, revenue and ARR read after the quarter is already decided.
- Every department tracks its own number in isolation, so nobody sees the handoff where deals actually die.
- A metric gets adopted because a tool made it easy to pull, not because it predicts anything.
The metrics dictionary: four numbers that move before revenue does
- Pipeline Coverage Ratio: open pipeline value divided by remaining quota. Predicts whether the quarter is mathematically possible.
- Sales Velocity: opportunities times win rate times average deal size, divided by sales cycle length. Predicts whether the engine is speeding up or slowing down.
- Stage Conversion Rate: percentage of deals advancing from one stage to the next. Predicts exactly where deals are dying.
- CAC Payback Period: months to recover acquisition cost from gross margin. Predicts whether growth is funding itself.
- Rep Ramp Time: time from start date to first full quota-attainment month. Predicts whether the hiring and onboarding system works.